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BEA Mountain vs Watanga — LFA First Division 2020

BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
FT
2 – 1
Watanga
Watanga
2/5/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 15Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

BEA Mountain37%
×Draw27%
Watanga36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BEA Mountain
1.25
Watanga
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 74 away

creates per match

BEA Mountain
1.74
Watanga
1.57

allows per match

BEA Mountain
0.89
Watanga
0.77

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par
Watanga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Watanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw
64%
BEA Mountain or Watanga
73%
Draw or Watanga
63%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+
16%
Watanga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals
71%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
36%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
13%
Watanga 1+ goals
71%
Watanga 2+ goals
35%
Watanga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
51%
Watanga (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Watanga away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.77 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Watanga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Watanga attack 1.57 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

BEA Mountain scores more
37%
level
27%
Watanga scores more
36%

BEA Mountain at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BEA Mountain vs Watanga

BEA Mountain beat Watanga 2-1 in LFA First Division on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Antoinette Tubman Stadium in Monrovia.