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Be1 NFA vs Dainava — 1 Lyga 2026

Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Preview
15:30
Dainava
Dainava
10/9/20261 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 26
40%
Be1 NFA
model favours
40%26%34%

Dainava are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Be1 NFA40%
×Draw26%
Dainava34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be1 NFA
1.42
Dainava
1.29

Be1 NFA creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Be1 NFA
1.71
Dainava
1.53

allows per match

Be1 NFA
1.06
Dainava
1.13

finishing

Be1 NFA+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be1 NFA ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Be1 NFA or draw
66%
Be1 NFA or Dainava
74%
Draw or Dainava
60%

Winning margin

Be1 NFA wins by 2+
19%
Dainava wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Be1 NFA 1+ goals
76%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
41%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
17%
Dainava 1+ goals
72%
Dainava 2+ goals
37%
Dainava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
54%
Dainava (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Dainava attack 1.53 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Be1 NFA scores more
40%
level
26%
Dainava scores more
34%

Be1 NFA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dainava have scored in 11 games running
  • 50% of Dainava’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 67% of Dainava’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Be1 NFA win just 35% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • Dainava win just 52% against the top half (vs 83% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
NFA
WWLWL
Dainava
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Be1 NFA host Dainava

October 9, 2026: Be1 NFA take on Dainava in 1 Lyga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.