Be Forward Wanderers 3–0 Karonga United

Be Forward Wanderers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Karonga United

M. Botomani 57', 14'

M. Sulumba 41' (pen)

7/2/2022

Super League · Round 12Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers62%

×Draw23%

Karonga United15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Be Forward WanderersExpected goals in this matchKaronga United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.71

Be Forward Wanderers

1.73

Karonga United

0.71

Be Forward Wanderers creates 144% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

2.00

creates per match

0.79

0.63

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers

2.00

Karonga United

0.79

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers

0.63

Karonga United

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Karonga United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Karonga United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw

85%

Be Forward Wanderers or Karonga United

77%

Draw or Karonga United

38%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+

35%

Karonga United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals

82%

Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals

52%

Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals

25%

Karonga United 1+ goals

51%

Karonga United 2+ goals

16%

Karonga United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)

81%

Karonga United (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.63 · 76 matches

Karonga United away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 2.00 + Karonga United defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.73

Karonga United attack 0.79 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more

62%

level

23%

Karonga United scores more

15%

Be Forward Wanderers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Botomani

41'

M. SulumbaPenalty

57'

M. Botomani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff