Bełchatów 3–0 Wigry Suwałki: Result & Stats

Bełchatów

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wigry Suwałki

M. Marzec 74', 53'

B. Biel 45+1'

9/29/2019

I Liga · Round 11Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bełchatów44%

×Draw27%

Wigry Suwałki29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BełchatówExpected goals in this matchWigry Suwałki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Bełchatów

1.38

Wigry Suwałki

1.05

Bełchatów creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

1.06

creates per match

0.72

1.39

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Bełchatów

1.06

Wigry Suwałki

0.72

allows per match

Bełchatów

1.39

Wigry Suwałki

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bełchatów+0.00on par

Wigry Suwałki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bełchatów ↓

Wigry Suwałki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bełchatów or draw

71%

Bełchatów or Wigry Suwałki

73%

Draw or Wigry Suwałki

56%

Winning margin

Bełchatów wins by 2+

21%

Wigry Suwałki wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bełchatów 1+ goals

75%

Bełchatów 2+ goals

40%

Bełchatów 3+ goals

16%

Wigry Suwałki 1+ goals

65%

Wigry Suwałki 2+ goals

28%

Wigry Suwałki 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bełchatów (draw refunded)

61%

Wigry Suwałki (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bełchatów at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Wigry Suwałki away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bełchatów attack 1.06 + Wigry Suwałki defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wigry Suwałki attack 0.72 + Bełchatów defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bełchatów scores more

44%

level

27%

Wigry Suwałki scores more

29%

Bełchatów at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bełchatów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

B. Biel

46'

C. Sauczek← A. Piekarski

53'

M. Marzec

62'

D. Soldecki

63'

O. Fürst← P. Gierach

74'

M. Ozga← Ł. Sosnowski

74'

M. Marzec

76'

D. Flaszka← M. Marzec

79'

É. Thiakane← V. Putin

82'

D. Kocyla← B. Biel

84'

P. Czajkowski

Bełchatów

Wigry

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Biel

Małachows

Czajkowsk

⚽2

▼

Marzec

▼

Putin

Mas

Manager: A. Derbin

76'▲D. Flaszka←▼M. Marzec

79'▲É. Thiakane←▼V. Putin

82'▲D. Kocyla←▼B. Biel

Bełchatów substitutes

FlaszkaThiakaneKocyla

Manager: A. Fedoruk

46'▲C. Sauczek←▼A. Piekarski

63'▲O. Fürst←▼P. Gierach

74'▲M. Ozga←▼Ł. Sosnowski

Wigry Suwałki substitutes

SauczekFürstOzga