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Bdin vs Tryavna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Bdin
Bdin
FT
3 – 0
Tryavna
Tryavna
10/21/2018Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Round 12Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bdin76%
×Draw15%
Tryavna9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bdin
2.62
Tryavna
0.79

Bdin creates 232% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bdin
2.33
Tryavna
0.62

allows per match

Bdin
0.96
Tryavna
2.90

finishing

Bdin+0.00on par
Tryavna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bdin ↓

Tryavna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bdin or draw
91%
Bdin or Tryavna
85%
Draw or Tryavna
24%

Winning margin

Bdin wins by 2+
54%
Tryavna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bdin 1+ goals
93%
Bdin 2+ goals
73%
Bdin 3+ goals
48%
Tryavna 1+ goals
55%
Tryavna 2+ goals
19%
Tryavna 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bdin (draw refunded)
89%
Tryavna (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bdin at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Tryavna away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bdin attack 2.33 + Tryavna defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.62

Tryavna attack 0.62 + Bdin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bdin scores more
76%
level
15%
Tryavna scores more
9%

Bdin at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Bdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Bdin 3–0 Tryavna

Bdin beat Tryavna 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Vidin).