Bayswater City 5–1 Olympic Kingsway: Result & Stats

Bayswater City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olympic Kingsway

3/23/2024

Western Australia NPL · Round 2Frank Drago Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bayswater City36%

×Draw22%

Olympic Kingsway42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayswater CityExpected goals in this matchOlympic Kingsway

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.85

Bayswater City

1.71

Olympic Kingsway

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 44 away

2.25

creates per match

2.09

1.61

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Bayswater City

2.25

Olympic Kingsway

2.09

allows per match

Bayswater City

1.61

Olympic Kingsway

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayswater City+0.00on par

Olympic Kingsway+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayswater City ↓

Olympic Kingsway →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bayswater City or draw

58%

Bayswater City or Olympic Kingsway

78%

Draw or Olympic Kingsway

64%

Winning margin

Bayswater City wins by 2+

18%

Olympic Kingsway wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bayswater City 1+ goals

82%

Bayswater City 2+ goals

51%

Bayswater City 3+ goals

24%

Olympic Kingsway 1+ goals

84%

Olympic Kingsway 2+ goals

55%

Olympic Kingsway 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bayswater City (draw refunded)

46%

Olympic Kingsway (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayswater City at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

Olympic Kingsway away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayswater City attack 2.25 + Olympic Kingsway defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Olympic Kingsway attack 2.09 + Bayswater City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bayswater City scores more

36%

level

22%

Olympic Kingsway scores more

42%

Olympic Kingsway at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympic Kingsway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff