Bayern Hof vs Fortuna Regensburg

Bayern Hof

Preview

13:00

Fortuna Regensburg

3/27/2027

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 25

Big match

41%

Bayern Hof

model favours

41%24%36%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bayern Hof41%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Regensburg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern HofExpected goals in this matchFortuna Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.53

Bayern Hof

1.65

Fortuna Regensburg

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.44

creates per match

1.63

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Bayern Hof

1.44

Fortuna Regensburg

1.63

allows per match

Bayern Hof

1.43

Fortuna Regensburg

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw

64%

Bayern Hof or Fortuna Regensburg

76%

Draw or Fortuna Regensburg

59%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

21%

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

81%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

49%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

23%

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals

78%

Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals

45%

Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

53%

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bayern Hof scores more

41%

level

24%

Fortuna Regensburg scores more

36%

Bayern Hof at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Hof

DDWW

Regensburg

WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff