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Bayern Hof vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
Preview
14:00
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
8/8/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4
Big match
40%
Bayern Hof
model favours
40%24%36%

Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Bayern Hof40%
×Draw24%
ASV Neumarkt36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Hof
1.60
ASV Neumarkt
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bayern Hof
1.44
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Bayern Hof
1.43
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw
64%
Bayern Hof or ASV Neumarkt
76%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
60%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+
20%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals
80%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
47%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
22%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
78%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
44%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
53%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bayern Hof scores more
40%
level
24%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
36%

Bayern Hof at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hof
DDWW
Neumarkt
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bayern Hof face ASV Neumarkt (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Bayern Hof hosting ASV Neumarkt. Match starts August 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.