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Bay FC W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
Preview
02:00
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
7/30/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park
Big match
53%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
model favours
22%25%53%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bay FC W22%
×Draw25%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
0.90
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.56

NJ/NY Gotham FC W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
1.00
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.60

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.52
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
0.80

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
NJ/NY Gotham FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

NJ/NY Gotham FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
47%
Bay FC W or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
75%
Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC W
78%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
7%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
59%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
23%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
6%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1+ goals
79%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 2+ goals
46%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
29%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

NJ/NY Gotham FC W away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + NJ/NY Gotham FC W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

NJ/NY Gotham FC W attack 1.60 + Bay FC W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bay FC W scores more
22%
level
25%
NJ/NY Gotham FC W scores more
53%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 75% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 25% of NJ/NY Gotham FC W’s matches
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Bay FC W sit 14, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 4 in the table
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC W fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 2.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bay FC W
Balanced
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Defensively solid
49%Possession52%
78%Pass accuracy78%
10.9Shots11.3
1.15xGBiggest gap2.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bay FC WNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Bay FC W
1
Draws
4
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 60%
0–31–11–21–50–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bay FC W host NJ/NY Gotham FC W

July 30, 2026: Bay FC W take on NJ/NY Gotham FC W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bay FC W host NJ/NY Gotham FC W at PayPal Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.