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Baunatal vs Vfb Marburg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Vfb Marburg
Vfb Marburg
11/4/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Baunatal55%
×Draw21%
Vfb Marburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
2.08
Vfb Marburg
1.31

Baunatal creates 59% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Vfb Marburg
1.31

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Vfb Marburg
2.13

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Vfb Marburg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Vfb Marburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
76%
Baunatal or Vfb Marburg
79%
Draw or Vfb Marburg
45%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
33%
Vfb Marburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
87%
Baunatal 2+ goals
61%
Baunatal 3+ goals
34%
Vfb Marburg 1+ goals
73%
Vfb Marburg 2+ goals
38%
Vfb Marburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
70%
Vfb Marburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Vfb Marburg away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.13 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Vfb Marburg defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

Vfb Marburg attack 1.31 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Baunatal scores more
55%
level
21%
Vfb Marburg scores more
24%

Baunatal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baunatal vs Vfb Marburg

Baunatal and Vfb Marburg drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.