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Baťov vs Holešov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Baťov
Baťov
FT
1 – 4
Holešov
Holešov
11/4/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 14Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Baťov43%
×Draw23%
Holešov35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baťov
1.77
Holešov
1.58

Baťov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 69 away

creates per match

Baťov
1.70
Holešov
1.49

allows per match

Baťov
1.68
Holešov
1.84

finishing

Baťov+0.00on par
Holešov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baťov ↓

Holešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Baťov or draw
65%
Baťov or Holešov
77%
Draw or Holešov
57%

Winning margin

Baťov wins by 2+
22%
Holešov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Baťov 1+ goals
83%
Baťov 2+ goals
53%
Baťov 3+ goals
26%
Holešov 1+ goals
79%
Holešov 2+ goals
47%
Holešov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Baťov (draw refunded)
55%
Holešov (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baťov at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.68 · 56 matches

Holešov away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baťov attack 1.70 + Holešov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Holešov attack 1.49 + Baťov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baťov scores more
43%
level
23%
Holešov scores more
35%

Baťov at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baťov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Baťov 1–4 Holešov

Holešov beat Baťov 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Holešov.