Bashundhara Kings 4–1 Rahmatgonj MFS

Bashundhara Kings

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rahmatgonj MFS

2/16/2024

Premier League · Round 8Bashundhara Kings Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bashundhara Kings64%

×Draw20%

Rahmatgonj MFS16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bashundhara KingsExpected goals in this matchRahmatgonj MFS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.02

Bashundhara Kings

2.21

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.02

Bashundhara Kings creates 117% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

2.62

creates per match

1.24

0.81

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Bashundhara Kings

2.62

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.24

allows per match

Bashundhara Kings

0.81

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bashundhara Kings+0.00on par

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bashundhara Kings ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bashundhara Kings or draw

84%

Bashundhara Kings or Rahmatgonj MFS

80%

Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS

36%

Winning margin

Bashundhara Kings wins by 2+

41%

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bashundhara Kings 1+ goals

89%

Bashundhara Kings 2+ goals

65%

Bashundhara Kings 3+ goals

38%

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals

64%

Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals

27%

Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bashundhara Kings (draw refunded)

80%

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bashundhara Kings at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bashundhara Kings attack 2.62 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.21

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Bashundhara Kings defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bashundhara Kings scores more

64%

level

20%

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more

16%

Bashundhara Kings at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bashundhara Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff