Başakşehir 3–1 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Göztepe

S. Okaka 37'

S. Gürler 24', 21'

İ. Malak 73'

12/20/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Başakşehir49%

×Draw22%

Göztepe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.39

Başakşehir

1.90

Göztepe

1.39

Başakşehir creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

2.46

creates per match

2.08

0.69

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.46

Göztepe

2.08

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.69

Göztepe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

72%

Başakşehir or Göztepe

78%

Draw or Göztepe

51%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

28%

Göztepe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

85%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

56%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

29%

Göztepe 1+ goals

75%

Göztepe 2+ goals

40%

Göztepe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

64%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Başakşehir scores more

49%

level

22%

Göztepe scores more

28%

Başakşehir at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

24'

37'

40'

46'

D. Aleksić← M. Chouiar

46'

P. Keny← S. Okaka

60'

İ. Malak← M. Kvasina

60'

Y. Kayan← D. Tijanič

62'

Ş. Özbayraklı← M. Tekdemir

73'

İ. Malak

74'

Y. Gedik← T. Akgün

74'

E. Saçıkara← U. Yıldız

85'

P. Szysz← S. Gürler

87'

Isaac Atanga

Statistics

BaşakşehirGöztepe

Overview

4Corners1

Türkiye Kupası: Başakşehir 3–1 Göztepe

Başakşehir beat Göztepe 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Gürler (21', 24'), S. Okaka (37'), İ. Malak (73').

The match was played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in İstanbul.

Başakşehir vs Göztepe — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Başakşehir 3–1 Göztepe