Barycz Sułów vs Górnik Polkowice

Barycz Sułów

Preview

12:00

Górnik Polkowice

7/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

41%

Barycz Sułów

model favours

41%22%37%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

71%

over 2.5 goals

71%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Barycz Sułów41%

×Draw22%

Górnik Polkowice37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barycz SułówExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.79

Barycz Sułów

1.88

Górnik Polkowice

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

2.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Barycz Sułów

1.75

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

allows per match

Barycz Sułów

2.25

Górnik Polkowice

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barycz Sułów+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barycz Sułów ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Barycz Sułów or draw

63%

Barycz Sułów or Górnik Polkowice

78%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

59%

Winning margin

Barycz Sułów wins by 2+

22%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Barycz Sułów 1+ goals

85%

Barycz Sułów 2+ goals

56%

Barycz Sułów 3+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Barycz Sułów (draw refunded)

52%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barycz Sułów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barycz Sułów attack 1.75 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.33 + Barycz Sułów defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barycz Sułów scores more

41%

level

22%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

37%

Barycz Sułów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barycz Sułów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Barycz Sułów and Górnik Polkowice have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Sułów

LWLLW

Polkowice

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff