Barrow 2–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swindon Town

J. Gordon 87' (pen)

O. Banks 62' (pen)

12/11/2021

League Two · Round 21The Dunes Hotel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow34%

×Draw27%

Swindon Town39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.30

Barrow

1.19

Swindon Town

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.81

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Swindon Town

1.56

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

61%

Barrow or Swindon Town

73%

Draw or Swindon Town

66%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

14%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

70%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

12%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

73%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

37%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

46%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barrow scores more

34%

level

27%

Swindon Town scores more

39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

O. Banks

Barrow · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

Ben Gladwin

38'

Connor Brown

46'

M. Platt← M. Ellis

62'

O. BanksPenalty

64'

J. Gordon← O. Zanzala

68'

J. Williams← R. East

71'

Robbie Gotts

72'

R. Hutton← J. Stevens

76'

Harry McKirdy

77'

Ollie Banks

79'

J. Mitchell-Lawson← H. McKirdy

84'

Paul Farman

85'

A. Gilbert← R. Hunt

87'

Jayden Mitchell-Lawson

87'

J. GordonPenalty

90+1'

James Jones

90+6'

Dion Conroy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowSwindon

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots7

4Corners7

12Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target3

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes501

277Accurate Passes408

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2