Barrow 0–1 Harrogate Town: Result & Stats

Barrow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Harrogate Town

J. Muldoon 84'

3/2/2021

League Two · Round 33Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow45%

×Draw25%

Harrogate Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchHarrogate Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Barrow

1.58

Harrogate Town

1.25

Barrow creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

0.81

creates per match

1.13

1.38

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Harrogate Town

1.13

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Harrogate Town

2.35

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.46scores less than expected

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Harrogate Town-0.46scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Harrogate Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

70%

Barrow or Harrogate Town

75%

Draw or Harrogate Town

55%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

23%

Harrogate Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

79%

Barrow 2+ goals

47%

Barrow 3+ goals

21%

Harrogate Town 1+ goals

71%

Harrogate Town 2+ goals

36%

Harrogate Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

60%

Harrogate Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Harrogate Town away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Harrogate Town defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Harrogate Town attack 1.13 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barrow scores more

45%

level

25%

Harrogate Town scores more

30%

Barrow at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Belshaw

Harrogate Town · G

7.7

Match Events

28'

45'

59'

59'

63'

64'

J. Falkingham← L. Kerry

64'

J. Muldoon← J. March

84'

J. Muldoon↳ J. Falkingham

86'

Patrick Brough

90+1'

M. Ndjoli← B. Barry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowHarrogate

Overview

52%Possession48%

8Total Shots8

0Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target4

1Blocked0

4Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

402Total Passes372

244Accurate Passes218

61%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2