Barrow 0–1 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grimsby

L. Spokes 71'

3/23/2021

League Two · Round 26Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow24%

×Draw26%

Grimsby50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.50

Barrow

0.96

Grimsby

1.50

Grimsby creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.81

creates per match

1.62

1.38

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Grimsby

1.62

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Grimsby

1.11

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

50%

Barrow or Grimsby

74%

Draw or Grimsby

76%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

8%

Grimsby wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

62%

Barrow 2+ goals

25%

Barrow 3+ goals

7%

Grimsby 1+ goals

78%

Grimsby 2+ goals

44%

Grimsby 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

33%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barrow scores more

24%

level

26%

Grimsby scores more

50%

Grimsby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

R. Menayese

Grimsby · D

7.7

Match Events

62'

Lenell John-Lewis

64'

T. Beadling← O. Banks

71'

L. Spokes↳ L. John-Lewis

78'

J. Devitt← J. Taylor

79'

P. Brough← N. Eardley

79'

G. Coke← D. Rose

87'

C. Andrew← J. Jones

90'

M. Green← S. Payne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowGrimsby

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots8

7Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots8

1On Target1

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

298Total Passes332

152Accurate Passes194

51%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0