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Barrow vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
J. Gordon 60', 43'
B. Waters 8'
10/29/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 17SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow31%
×Draw27%
Crewe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.34

Crewe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
59%
Barrow or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
69%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
13%
Crewe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
68%
Barrow 2+ goals
31%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%
Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
43%
Crewe (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Crewe attack 1.30 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Barrow scores more
31%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
41%

Crewe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
B. WhitfieldBarrowBarrow · M
9.0

Match Events

8'
B. Waters↳ B. Whitfield
33'
C. Finney← J. Tabiner
43'
J. Gordon↳ B. Whitfield
46'
J. Lillis← P. Farman
56'
M. Kenlock← P. Brough
56'
S. Foley← H. Neal
59'
C. Baker-Richardson← R. Adebisi
60'
J. Gordon
66'
Zac Williams
67'
Josh Gordon
69'
B. Sass-Davies← Z. Williams
72'
Bassala Sambou
76'
D. Moyo← J. Kay
81'
J. Stevens← B. Whitfield
90+2'
Myles Kenlock
90'
Jordan Stevens

Possession

39%Barrow

Shots

12Barrow

Pass accuracy

44%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowCrewe
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots9
10Corners3
18Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots9
8On Target2
1Off Target6
3Blocked1
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
303Total Passes479
185Accurate Passes373
61%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

League Two: Barrow 3–0 Crewe

Barrow beat Crewe 3-0 in League Two on October 29, 2022.

Goals: B. Waters (8'), J. Gordon (43', 60').

Crewe controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.