Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barrio México vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Barrio México
Barrio México
FT
1 – 0
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
9/21/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 3Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Barrio México58%
×Draw23%
Futbol Consultants Moravia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrio México
1.86
Futbol Consultants Moravia
0.97

Barrio México creates 92% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 124 away

creates per match

Barrio México
2.07
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Barrio México
0.77
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw
81%
Barrio México or Futbol Consultants Moravia
77%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
42%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+
34%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals
84%
Barrio México 2+ goals
55%
Barrio México 3+ goals
28%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
62%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
25%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)
75%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.07 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.86

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Barrio México defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Barrio México scores more
58%
level
23%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
19%

Barrio México at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barrio México 1 – 0 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Barrio México beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.