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Barreda vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barreda
Barreda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
9/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Barreda40%
×Draw27%
Siete Villas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barreda
1.30
Siete Villas
1.15

Barreda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

creates per match

Barreda
1.33
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Barreda
1.30
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barreda or draw
67%
Barreda or Siete Villas
73%
Draw or Siete Villas
60%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+
18%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals
73%
Barreda 2+ goals
37%
Barreda 3+ goals
14%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
68%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
32%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)
55%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barreda scores more
40%
level
27%
Siete Villas scores more
33%

Barreda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barreda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barreda vs Siete Villas

Barreda and Siete Villas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Solvay in Torrelavega.