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Barranquilla vs Valledupar — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valledupar
Valledupar
4/18/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 10Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez (Barranquilla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Barranquilla44%
×Draw28%
Valledupar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.33
Valledupar
0.99

Barranquilla creates 34% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 89 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Valledupar
0.87

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Valledupar
1.46

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
72%
Barranquilla or Valledupar
72%
Draw or Valledupar
56%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
21%
Valledupar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
74%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
38%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
15%
Valledupar 1+ goals
63%
Valledupar 2+ goals
26%
Valledupar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
61%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Barranquilla scores more
44%
level
28%
Valledupar scores more
28%

Barranquilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barranquilla vs Valledupar

Valledupar beat Barranquilla 1-0 in Primera B on April 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez (Barranquilla).