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Barquereño vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barquereño
Barquereño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Barquereño39%
×Draw26%
Guarnizo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barquereño
1.39
Guarnizo
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 111 away

creates per match

Barquereño
1.58
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Barquereño
1.41
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw
64%
Barquereño or Guarnizo
74%
Draw or Guarnizo
61%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+
18%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals
75%
Barquereño 2+ goals
40%
Barquereño 3+ goals
16%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
73%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
38%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)
52%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barquereño scores more
39%
level
26%
Guarnizo scores more
36%

Barquereño at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Barquereño 1–2 Guarnizo

Guarnizo beat Barquereño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañar in San Vicente de la Barquera.