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Barnsley vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Wycombe
Wycombe
N. Freeman 83'
D. Gape 72'
A. Mehmeti 37'
8/20/2022League OneLeague One · Round 5Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barnsley42%
×Draw25%
Wycombe33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.50
Wycombe
1.29

Barnsley creates 16% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 157 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Wycombe
1.27

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Wycombe
1.32

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
67%
Barnsley or Wycombe
75%
Draw or Wycombe
58%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
21%
Wycombe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
78%
Barnsley 2+ goals
44%
Barnsley 3+ goals
19%
Wycombe 1+ goals
72%
Wycombe 2+ goals
37%
Wycombe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
56%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wycombe attack 1.27 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnsley scores more
42%
level
25%
Wycombe scores more
33%

Barnsley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. StryjekWycombeWycombe · G
8.2

Match Events

37'
A. Mehmeti↳ G. McCleary
41'
Jordan Obita
46'
Jordan Williams
59'
J. Norwood← J. Aitchison
59'
M. Wolfe← L. Connell
68'
Alfie Mawson
71'
N. Freeman← A. Mehmeti
72'
D. Gape↳ D. Wheeler
77'
W. Hondermarck← C. Styles
82'
Ali Al Hamadi← G. McCleary
83'
N. Freeman↳ L. Wing
85'
J. McCarthy← D. Wheeler
87'
Josh Benson
90+1'
James Norwood

Possession

55%Barnsley

Shots

12Barnsley

Pass accuracy

53%Barnsley

Statistics

BarnsleyWycombe
Overview
55%Possession45%
12Total Shots14
7Corners5
8Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots14
5On Target8
2Off Target5
5Blocked1
7Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
361Total Passes303
225Accurate Passes164
62%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Wycombe

Wycombe beat Barnsley 3-0 in League One on August 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Mehmeti (37'), D. Gape (72'), N. Freeman (83').

Barnsley controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.