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Barnsley vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
9/5/2026League OneLeague One · Round 5Oakwell
Big match
45%
Barnsley
model favours
45%26%29%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Barnsley45%
×Draw26%
Stevenage29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.46
Stevenage
1.12

Barnsley creates 30% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 70 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
71%
Barnsley or Stevenage
74%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
22%
Stevenage wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
77%
Barnsley 2+ goals
43%
Barnsley 3+ goals
18%
Stevenage 1+ goals
67%
Stevenage 2+ goals
31%
Stevenage 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
61%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barnsley scores more
45%
level
26%
Stevenage scores more
29%

Barnsley at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Stevenage
Direct / counter-attacking
52%Possession43%
74%Pass accuracy64%
13.1Shots10.4
1.48xGBiggest gap0.99
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyStevenage

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Barnsley
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–13–10–10–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Stevenage
LLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley face Stevenage (League One)

League One returns with Barnsley hosting Stevenage. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnsley host Stevenage at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.