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Barnsley vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
19:45
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
12/29/2026League OneLeague One · Round 22Oakwell
Big match
47%
Burton Albion
model favours
30%23%47%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barnsley30%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.39
Burton Albion
1.81

Burton Albion creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.22
Burton Albion
1.57

allows per match

Barnsley
2.06
Burton Albion
1.55

finishing

Barnsley+0.18scores more
Burton Albion-0.24scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
53%
Barnsley or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
70%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
13%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
75%
Barnsley 2+ goals
40%
Barnsley 3+ goals
16%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
84%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
54%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
39%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 5 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.22 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Barnsley defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barnsley scores more
30%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
47%

Burton Albion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Burton Albion score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.9% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Burton Albion
Defensively solid
52%Possession45%
74%Pass accuracy63%
13.1ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.48xG1.64
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyBurton Albion

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Barnsley
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 60%
1–13–20–02–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Albion
DDDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley vs Burton Albion — Match Preview

Barnsley face Burton Albion on December 29, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnsley host Burton Albion at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.