Barnsley vs Burton Albion — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Barnsley30%
Burton Albion47%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Burton Albion creates 30% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Barnsley ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Barnsley at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.88 · 6 matches
Burton Albion away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.55 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Barnsley attack 1.11 + Burton Albion defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33
Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Barnsley defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Burton Albion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Burton Albion substitutes
LutonBarnsley
Charlton
Portsmouth
Sunderland
Doncaster
Peterborough
CoventryBurton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Barnsley host Burton Albion on Saturday, 17 December 2022 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Barnsley vs Burton Albion
Barnsley beat Burton Albion 2-0 in League One on December 17, 2022.
Goals: D. Cole (36', 73').
Burton Albion controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 11.
The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.