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Barnsley vs Bradford — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
18:45
Bradford
Bradford
4/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 41Oakwell
49%
Barnsley
model favours
49%24%27%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Barnsley49%
×Draw24%
Bradford27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.67
Bradford
1.19

Barnsley creates 40% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Bradford
1.08

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Bradford
1.67

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Bradford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
73%
Barnsley or Bradford
76%
Draw or Bradford
51%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
26%
Bradford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
81%
Barnsley 2+ goals
50%
Barnsley 3+ goals
23%
Bradford 1+ goals
70%
Bradford 2+ goals
33%
Bradford 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
64%
Bradford (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Bradford defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bradford attack 1.08 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnsley scores more
49%
level
24%
Bradford scores more
27%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Barnsley sit 15, Bradford 5 in the table
  • Bradford fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Bradford
Attack-heavy
52%Possession54%
74%Pass accuracy68%
13.1Shots14.8
1.48xGBiggest gap1.71
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyBradford

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Barnsley
2
Draws
0
Bradford
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
2–22–23–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Bradford
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley vs Bradford — Match Preview

Barnsley face Bradford on April 13, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnsley host Bradford at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.