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Barnet vs York — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
York
York
10/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 9The Hive Stadium
42%
Barnet
model favours
42%26%32%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Barnet42%
×Draw26%
York32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.39
York
1.17

Barnet creates 19% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.37
York
1.13

allows per match

Barnet
1.21
York
1.40

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
68%
Barnet or York
74%
Draw or York
58%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
20%
York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
75%
Barnet 2+ goals
40%
Barnet 3+ goals
16%
York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
57%
York (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.37 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

York attack 1.13 + Barnet defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnet scores more
42%
level
26%
York scores more
32%

Barnet at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (70% and 83% over 2.5)
  • Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet vs York — Match Preview

Barnet face York on October 3, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnet host York at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.