Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barnet vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
15:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
3/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 35The Hive Stadium
Big match
53%
Barnet
model favours
53%24%23%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Barnet53%
×Draw24%
Shrewsbury23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.67
Shrewsbury
1.01

Barnet creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Barnet
1.28
Shrewsbury
1.21

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less
Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
77%
Barnet or Shrewsbury
76%
Draw or Shrewsbury
47%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
28%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
81%
Barnet 2+ goals
50%
Barnet 3+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
64%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
27%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
70%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barnet scores more
53%
level
24%
Shrewsbury scores more
23%

Barnet at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Shrewsbury have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
55%Possession43%
68%Pass accuracy59%
13.6Shots11.2
1.72xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetShrewsbury

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Barnet
1
Draws
4
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
0–01–30–31–22–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet vs Shrewsbury — Match Preview

Barnet face Shrewsbury on March 13, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnet host Shrewsbury at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.