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Barnet vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
5/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 45The Hive Stadium
43%
Barnet
model favours
43%27%30%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Barnet43%
×Draw27%
Rochdale30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.37
Rochdale
1.08

Barnet creates 27% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 56 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.37
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Barnet
1.21
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
70%
Barnet or Rochdale
73%
Draw or Rochdale
57%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
20%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
75%
Barnet 2+ goals
40%
Barnet 3+ goals
16%
Rochdale 1+ goals
66%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
59%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.37 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Barnet defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Barnet scores more
43%
level
27%
Rochdale scores more
30%

Barnet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Barnet and Rochdale have never met before
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Rochdale
Balanced
55%Possession53%
68%Pass accuracy71%
13.7ShotsBiggest gap10.9
1.72xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetRochdale

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet vs Rochdale — Match Preview

Barnet face Rochdale on May 1, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnet host Rochdale at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.