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Barnet vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
12/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 19The Hive Stadium
Big match
39%
Barnet
model favours
39%27%35%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Barnet39%
×Draw27%
Northampton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.31
Northampton
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 88 away

creates per match

Barnet
1.37
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Barnet
1.21
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
65%
Barnet or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
61%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
17%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
73%
Barnet 2+ goals
38%
Barnet 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
71%
Northampton 2+ goals
35%
Northampton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
53%
Northampton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.37 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Northampton attack 1.24 + Barnet defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnet scores more
39%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
35%

Barnet at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Northampton
Balanced
56%PossessionBiggest gap48%
68%Pass accuracy65%
13.7Shots11.9
1.77xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetNorthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Barnet
0
Draws
3
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 33%
0–32–00–24–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Northampton (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Northampton. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Northampton at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.