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Bari vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
12/9/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 16Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bari40%
×Draw28%
Sudtirol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.26
Sudtirol
1.08

Bari creates 17% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bari
1.23
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Bari
1.09
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Bari+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bari or draw
68%
Bari or Sudtirol
72%
Draw or Sudtirol
60%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
18%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
72%
Bari 2+ goals
36%
Bari 3+ goals
13%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
66%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
29%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
56%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 82 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.23 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Bari defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bari scores more
40%
level
28%
Sudtirol scores more
32%

Bari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Bari 2–1 Sudtirol

Bari beat Sudtirol 2-1 in Serie B on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Bari.