Bari 6–2 Brescia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Brescia

A. Scheidler 77'

M. Antenucci 68'

W. Cheddira 55', 43'

N. Bellomo 26'

M. Folorunsho 7'

S. Moreo 90+1'

G. Olzer 86'

10/1/2022

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Bari39%

×Draw28%

Brescia34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchBrescia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Bari

1.25

Brescia

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 120 away

1.23

creates per match

1.21

1.09

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Bari

1.23

Brescia

1.21

allows per match

Bari

1.09

Brescia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari+0.00on par

Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Brescia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bari or draw

66%

Bari or Brescia

72%

Draw or Brescia

61%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

17%

Brescia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

71%

Bari 2+ goals

36%

Bari 3+ goals

13%

Brescia 1+ goals

68%

Brescia 2+ goals

32%

Brescia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

53%

Brescia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 82 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.23 + Brescia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Brescia attack 1.21 + Bari defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bari scores more

39%

level

28%

Brescia scores more

34%

Bari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

W. Cheddira

Bari · F

8.6

Match Events

7'

M. Folorunsho↳ N. Bellomo

23'

Massimiliano Mangraviti

24'

Michael Folorunsho

26'

N. Bellomo↳ W. Cheddira

37'

Florian AyéGoal cancelled

43'

W. Cheddira↳ M. Dorval

45'

46'

46'

46'

55'

60'

A. Scheidler← W. Cheddira

60'

A. D'Errico← N. Bellomo

64'

Andrea D'Errico

67'

Emanuele Ndoj

68'

M. Antenucci

69'

E. Salcedo← M. Antenucci

70'

Fran Karačić

71'

T. van de Looi← J. Łabojko

71'

G. Olzer← Ahmed Benali

77'

A. Scheidler↳ E. Salcedo

78'

A. Mallamo← M. Maita

79'

Ž. Žužek← V. Di Cesare

86'

G. Olzer↳ M. Bertagnoli

90+1'

S. Moreo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariBrescia

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots9

3Corners6

11Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target3

6Off Target5

4Blocked1

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

339Total Passes430

282Accurate Passes366

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Serie B: Bari 6–2 Brescia

Bari beat Brescia 6-2 in Serie B on October 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Folorunsho (7'), N. Bellomo (26'), W. Cheddira (43', 55'), M. Antenucci (68'), A. Scheidler (77'), G. Olzer (86'), S. Moreo (90+1').

Brescia controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Bari 6–2 Brescia