Bari U19 3–0 Salernitana U19: Result & Stats

Bari U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Salernitana U19

12/23/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 13Campo Sportivo Comunale Sigismondo Palmiotta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bari U1948%

×Draw23%

Salernitana U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bari U19Expected goals in this matchSalernitana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.41

Bari U19

1.85

Salernitana U19

1.41

Bari U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

1.51

creates per match

1.10

1.71

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Bari U19

1.51

Salernitana U19

1.10

allows per match

Bari U19

1.71

Salernitana U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bari U19+0.00on par

Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bari U19 or draw

71%

Bari U19 or Salernitana U19

77%

Draw or Salernitana U19

52%

Winning margin

Bari U19 wins by 2+

26%

Salernitana U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bari U19 1+ goals

84%

Bari U19 2+ goals

55%

Bari U19 3+ goals

28%

Salernitana U19 1+ goals

76%

Salernitana U19 2+ goals

41%

Salernitana U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bari U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari U19 attack 1.51 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Bari U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bari U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Salernitana U19 scores more

29%

Bari U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff