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Bari U19 vs Perugia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Bari U19
Bari U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Perugia U19
Perugia U19
1/20/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 15Campo Sportivo Comunale Sigismondo Palmiotta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bari U1944%
×Draw24%
Perugia U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari U19
1.69
Perugia U19
1.44

Bari U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Bari U19
1.51
Perugia U19
1.18

allows per match

Bari U19
1.71
Perugia U19
1.88

finishing

Bari U19+0.00on par
Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bari U19 or draw
67%
Bari U19 or Perugia U19
76%
Draw or Perugia U19
56%

Winning margin

Bari U19 wins by 2+
23%
Perugia U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bari U19 1+ goals
82%
Bari U19 2+ goals
50%
Bari U19 3+ goals
24%
Perugia U19 1+ goals
76%
Perugia U19 2+ goals
42%
Perugia U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bari U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Perugia U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari U19 attack 1.51 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Bari U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bari U19 scores more
44%
level
24%
Perugia U19 scores more
33%

Bari U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bari U19 vs Perugia U19

Bari U19 beat Perugia U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Sigismondo Palmiotta in Modugno.