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Barcelona W vs Sevilla W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Sevilla W
Sevilla W
11/5/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 7Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Barcelona W86%
×Draw9%
Sevilla W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.40
Sevilla W
0.72

Barcelona W creates 372% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Sevilla W
1.01

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Sevilla W
1.86

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Sevilla W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Sevilla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
95%
Barcelona W or Sevilla W
91%
Draw or Sevilla W
14%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
69%
Sevilla W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
96%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
84%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
64%
Sevilla W 1+ goals
51%
Sevilla W 2+ goals
16%
Sevilla W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
95%
Sevilla W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Sevilla W away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Sevilla W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.40

Sevilla W attack 1.01 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Barcelona W scores more
86%
level
9%
Sevilla W scores more
5%

Barcelona W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona W vs Sevilla W

Barcelona W beat Sevilla W 8-0 in Primera División Femenina on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.