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Barcelona W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
Preview
15:00
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
5/9/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 28Estadi Johan Cruyff
Big match
78%
Barcelona W
model favours
78%13%9%

Barcelona W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
78%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barcelona W78%
×Draw13%
Real Sociedad W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.19
Real Sociedad W
1.04

Barcelona W creates 207% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
91%
Barcelona W or Real Sociedad W
87%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
22%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
59%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
96%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
82%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
60%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
65%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
28%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
90%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 3.19

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Barcelona W scores more
78%
level
13%
Real Sociedad W scores more
9%

Barcelona W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Barcelona W 1 vs Real Sociedad W 3
  • Real Sociedad W win just 24% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 5.4 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
Real Sociedad W
Possession-dominant
73%Possession55%
89%Pass accuracy78%
26.0ShotsBiggest gap12.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Barcelona WReal Sociedad W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

9
Barcelona W
0
Draws
1
Real Sociedad W
Avg goals: 5.4BTTS: 70%
2–10–16–03–17–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWW
W
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barcelona W face Real Sociedad W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Barcelona W hosting Real Sociedad W. Match starts May 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barcelona W host Real Sociedad W at Estadi Johan Cruyff.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.