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Barcelona W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
12/3/2022Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 11Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barcelona W78%
×Draw13%
Real Sociedad W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.19
Real Sociedad W
1.04

Barcelona W creates 207% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
91%
Barcelona W or Real Sociedad W
87%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
22%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
59%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
96%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
82%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
60%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
65%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
28%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
90%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 3.19

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Barcelona W scores more
78%
level
13%
Real Sociedad W scores more
9%

Barcelona W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Barcelona W 2–1 Real Sociedad W

Barcelona W beat Real Sociedad W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.