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Barcelona W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
Preview
15:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
10/4/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Estadi Johan Cruyff
Big match
68%
Barcelona W
model favours
68%16%16%

Barcelona W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Barcelona W68%
×Draw16%
Real Madrid W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
2.92
Real Madrid W
1.36

Barcelona W creates 115% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 92 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
84%
Barcelona W or Real Madrid W
84%
Draw or Real Madrid W
32%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
48%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
94%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
78%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
55%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
74%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
39%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
81%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 2.92

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Barcelona W scores more
68%
level
16%
Real Madrid W scores more
16%

Barcelona W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Top-of-the-table clash — Barcelona W 1 vs Real Madrid W 2
  • Real Madrid W win just 56% against the top half (vs 91% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
Real Madrid W
Possession-dominant
75%Possession59%
89%Pass accuracy83%
26.9ShotsBiggest gap17.6
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Barcelona WReal Madrid W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

9
Barcelona W
0
Draws
1
Real Madrid W
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 20%
6–03–06–24–01–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWW
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barcelona W host Real Madrid W

October 4, 2026: Barcelona W take on Real Madrid W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barcelona W host Real Madrid W at Estadi Johan Cruyff.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.