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Barcelona W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Betis W
Real Betis W
2/10/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 20Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Barcelona W87%
×Draw9%
Real Betis W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.51
Real Betis W
0.73

Barcelona W creates 381% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Real Betis W
1.03

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Real Betis W
2.10

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Real Betis W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
96%
Barcelona W or Real Betis W
91%
Draw or Real Betis W
13%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
71%
Real Betis W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
97%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
86%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
66%
Real Betis W 1+ goals
52%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
17%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
95%
Real Betis W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 3.51

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Barcelona W scores more
87%
level
9%
Real Betis W scores more
4%

Barcelona W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Barcelona W 6–0 Real Betis W

Barcelona W beat Real Betis W 6-0 in Primera División Femenina on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Johan Cruyff in Sant Joan Despí.