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Barcelona W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
Preview
16:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
11/8/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 10Estadi Johan Cruyff
Big match
83%
Barcelona W
model favours
83%10%6%

Barcelona W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
81%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barcelona W83%
×Draw10%
Madrid CFF W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.53
Madrid CFF W
0.94

Barcelona W creates 276% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
94%
Barcelona W or Madrid CFF W
90%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
17%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
67%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
97%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
86%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
66%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
61%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
24%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
93%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.53

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Barcelona W scores more
83%
level
10%
Madrid CFF W scores more
6%

Barcelona W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 6.2 goals
  • Madrid CFF W win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
73%Possession55%
89%Pass accuracy77%
26.4ShotsBiggest gap13.9
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Barcelona WMadrid CFF W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

9
Barcelona W
0
Draws
1
Madrid CFF W
Avg goals: 6.2BTTS: 50%
4–012–15–18–18–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWW
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barcelona W face Madrid CFF W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Barcelona W hosting Madrid CFF W. Match starts November 8, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barcelona W host Madrid CFF W at Estadi Johan Cruyff.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.