Barcelona W 5–0 Madrid CFF W: Result & Stats

Barcelona W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Madrid CFF W

3/1/2020

Primera División Femenina · Round 22Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barcelona W83%

×Draw10%

Madrid CFF W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona WExpected goals in this matchMadrid CFF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.53

0.94

Barcelona W

3.53

Madrid CFF W

0.94

Barcelona W creates 276% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

4.93

creates per match

1.44

0.44

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Barcelona W

4.93

Madrid CFF W

1.44

allows per match

Barcelona W

0.44

Madrid CFF W

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Madrid CFF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–17%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw

94%

Barcelona W or Madrid CFF W

90%

Draw or Madrid CFF W

17%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+

67%

Madrid CFF W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals

97%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

86%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

66%

Madrid CFF W 1+ goals

61%

Madrid CFF W 2+ goals

24%

Madrid CFF W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

93%

Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 3.53

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Barcelona W scores more

83%

level

10%

Madrid CFF W scores more

6%

Barcelona W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff