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Barcelona W vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Barcelona W
Barcelona W
Preview
15:00
Eibar W
Eibar W
4/4/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Estadi Johan Cruyff
Big match
87%
Barcelona W
model favours
87%9%4%

Barcelona W have won 10 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Barcelona W87%
×Draw9%
Eibar W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona W
3.35
Eibar W
0.61

Barcelona W creates 449% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 77 away

creates per match

Barcelona W
4.93
Eibar W
0.78

allows per match

Barcelona W
0.44
Eibar W
1.77

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par
Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Eibar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw
96%
Barcelona W or Eibar W
91%
Draw or Eibar W
13%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+
71%
Eibar W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals
96%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
84%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
63%
Eibar W 1+ goals
46%
Eibar W 2+ goals
13%
Eibar W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)
96%
Eibar W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.93, concedes 0.44 · 119 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.93 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 3.35

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Barcelona W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Barcelona W scores more
87%
level
9%
Eibar W scores more
4%

Barcelona W at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 5.3 goals
  • Style contrast — Barcelona W play Possession-dominant, Eibar W Direct / counter-attacking
  • Barcelona W sit 1, Eibar W 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
75%Possession31%
89%Pass accuracy55%
26.9ShotsBiggest gap8.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Barcelona WEibar W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

10
Barcelona W
0
Draws
0
Eibar W
Avg goals: 5.3BTTS: 20%
4–04–08–14–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WWWWW
W
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Barcelona W host Eibar W

April 4, 2027: Barcelona W take on Eibar W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Barcelona W host Eibar W at Estadi Johan Cruyff.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.