Barcelona 3–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Barcelona

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mallorca

Gavi 70'

Ansu Fati 24', 1'

5/28/2023

La Liga · Round 37Spotify Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Barcelona63%

×Draw20%

Mallorca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarcelonaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.97

Barcelona

2.09

Mallorca

0.97

Barcelona creates 115% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 43 away

2.40

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Barcelona

2.40

Mallorca

0.92

allows per match

Barcelona

1.01

Mallorca

1.79

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Barcelona+0.37scores more

Mallorca-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw

83%

Barcelona or Mallorca

80%

Draw or Mallorca

37%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+

39%

Mallorca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals

88%

Barcelona 2+ goals

62%

Barcelona 3+ goals

34%

Mallorca 1+ goals

62%

Mallorca 2+ goals

25%

Mallorca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)

79%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.40 + Mallorca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.09

Mallorca attack 0.92 + Barcelona defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Barcelona scores more

63%

level

20%

Mallorca scores more

17%

Barcelona at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

O. Dembélé

Barcelona · F

8.7

Match Events

1'

Ansu Fati↳ Gavi

14'

Amath Ndiaye

14'

Amath NdiayeCard upgrade

17'

Sergi Roberto← Alejandro Balde

24'

Ansu Fati↳ R. Lewandowski

46'

C. Grenier← Josep Gayá

70'

Gavi↳ O. Dembélé

72'

Ángel← Dani Rodríguez

79'

Raphinha← Ansu Fati

79'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

81'

Marcos Alonso← Jordi Alba

84'

Ferran Torres← O. Dembélé

85'

Eric García← Sergio Busquets

86'

G. González← Manu Morlanes

87'

Rubén Quintanilla← Jaume Costa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaMallorca

Overview

78%Possession22%

28Total Shots3

3.64Expected Goals (xG)0.09

14Corners3

4Fouls9

Shots

28Total Shots3

9On Target1

11Off Target0

8Blocked2

21Inside Box3

7Outside Box0

Passing

78%Possession22%

713Total Passes196

649Accurate Passes132

91%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

4Fouls9

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1