Barcelona 2–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Barcelona

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

Sergio Busquets 54'

M. Depay 25'

Raíllo 79'

5/1/2022

La Liga · Round 34Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Barcelona63%

×Draw21%

Mallorca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarcelonaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.97

Barcelona

2.07

Mallorca

0.97

Barcelona creates 113% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

2.40

creates per match

0.93

1.01

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Barcelona

2.40

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Barcelona

1.01

Mallorca

1.74

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Barcelona+0.37scores more

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw

83%

Barcelona or Mallorca

79%

Draw or Mallorca

37%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+

39%

Mallorca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals

87%

Barcelona 2+ goals

61%

Barcelona 3+ goals

34%

Mallorca 1+ goals

62%

Mallorca 2+ goals

25%

Mallorca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)

79%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.40 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.07

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Barcelona defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Barcelona scores more

63%

level

21%

Mallorca scores more

17%

Barcelona at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Depay

Barcelona · F

8.3

Match Events

25'

28'

35'

54'

59'

60'

C. Grenier← Dani Rodríguez

63'

Antonio Raíllo

64'

Clément Grenier

70'

Lee Kang-In← R. Battaglia

70'

Salva Sevilla← Antonio Sánchez

73'

Ferran TorresGoal cancelled

75'

Ansu Fati← P. Aubameyang

75'

O. Dembélé← Ferran Torres

79'

Raíllo↳ Salva Sevilla

89'

C. Lenglet← Dani Alves

89'

M. Hoppe← Ángel

90+1'

Jordi Alba

90+1'

Pablo Maffeo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaMallorca

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots6

5Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots6

5On Target2

7Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

664Total Passes279

581Accurate Passes205

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides2