Barcelona SC 1–0 LDU de Quito: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

LDU de Quito

J. Corozo 43'

9/17/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 6Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Barcelona SC47%

×Draw26%

LDU de Quito28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchLDU de Quito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.10

Barcelona SC

1.51

LDU de Quito

1.10

Barcelona SC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 136 away

1.87

creates per match

1.37

0.84

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.87

LDU de Quito

1.37

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.84

LDU de Quito

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

LDU de Quito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

72%

Barcelona SC or LDU de Quito

74%

Draw or LDU de Quito

53%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

23%

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

78%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

44%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

19%

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

67%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

30%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

63%

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.84 · 134 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + LDU de Quito defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.51

LDU de Quito attack 1.37 + Barcelona SC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

47%

level

26%

LDU de Quito scores more

28%

Barcelona SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

P. Perlaza

Barcelona SC · D

7.5

Match Events

-5'

21'

21'

21'

21'

43'

J. Corozo↳ P. Perlaza

45+1'

Jonathan Bauman

63'

A. Alvarado← S. González

63'

Ó. Zambrano← L. Piovi

63'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

66'

Adonis Preciado← C. Ortíz

69'

Carlos Rodríguez

71'

L. Alzugaray← R. Ibarra

77'

Alexander Alvarado

78'

J. Arce← J. Corozo

78'

F. Gaibor← J. Trindade

79'

S. Portocarrero← M. Pineida

80'

Javier Burrai

82'

A. Obando← J. Bauman

84'

J. Angulo← M. Martínez

86'

89'

90+4'

90+3'

90+2'

Ricardo AdéCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaLDU

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots9

1Corners7

14Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target1

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

295Total Passes405

231Accurate Passes337

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

8Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito

Barcelona SC beat LDU de Quito 1-0 in Liga Pro on September 17, 2023.

Goals: J. Corozo (43').

LDU de Quito controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.

Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito