Barcelona SC 2–1 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Cuenca

D. Díaz 79' (pen)

L. Sosa 52'

S. López 16'

4/23/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 7Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barcelona SC46%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cuenca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Barcelona SC

1.48

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

Barcelona SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.29

0.94

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.40

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.94

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Barcelona SC-0.20scores less

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

72%

Barcelona SC or Deportivo Cuenca

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

54%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

77%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

43%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

62%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.40 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Barcelona SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

46%

level

26%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

28%

Barcelona SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. López↳ V. Branda

22'

Nicolás Rinaldi

52'

L. Sosa↳ D. Díaz

57'

Pedro Velasco

63'

Christian Ortíz

63'

E. López← F. Mera

65'

A. Rodríguez← C. Ortíz

65'

F. Fydriszewski← J. Bauman

68'

A. Preciado← J. Corozo

79'

D. DíazPenalty

81'

A. López← R. Farías

81'

D. Ávila← N. Rinaldi

88'

B. Piñatares← D. Díaz

88'

E. Dávila← V. Branda

89'

J. Almeida← B. Rivera

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BarcelonaDeportivo

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots4

8Corners6

5Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots4

6On Target4

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1