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Barakaldo vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
Preview
16:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
2/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Campo de Lasesarre
47%
Barakaldo
model favours
47%27%26%
1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Barakaldo47%
×Draw27%
UD Logroñés26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.44
UD Logroñés
0.99

Barakaldo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 18 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.55
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Barakaldo
0.92
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
74%
Barakaldo or UD Logroñés
73%
Draw or UD Logroñés
53%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
23%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
76%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
42%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
18%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
63%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
26%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
65%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.55 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Barakaldo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barakaldo scores more
47%
level
27%
UD Logroñés scores more
26%

Barakaldo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Barakaldo
DWWLW
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barakaldo face UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Barakaldo hosting UD Logroñés. Match starts February 21, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barakaldo host UD Logroñés at Campo de Lasesarre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.