Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barakaldo vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
Preview
16:00
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
1/3/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Campo de Lasesarre
48%
Barakaldo
model favours
48%27%25%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Barakaldo48%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.41
Mérida AD
0.92

Barakaldo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.55
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Barakaldo
0.92
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
75%
Barakaldo or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
52%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
24%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
76%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
41%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
17%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
60%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
23%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
66%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.55 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Barakaldo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Barakaldo scores more
48%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
25%

Barakaldo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Barakaldo
DWWLW
AD
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barakaldo vs Mérida AD — Match Preview

Barakaldo face Mérida AD on January 3, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barakaldo host Mérida AD at Campo de Lasesarre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.