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Bansko vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Bansko
Bansko
FT
1 – 1
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
11/18/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 18Stadion Sveti Petar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bansko45%
×Draw27%
Vitosha Bistritsa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bansko
1.41
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.05

Bansko creates 34% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Bansko
1.62
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Bansko
0.98
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Bansko+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bansko ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bansko or draw
72%
Bansko or Vitosha Bistritsa
73%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
55%

Winning margin

Bansko wins by 2+
22%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bansko 1+ goals
76%
Bansko 2+ goals
41%
Bansko 3+ goals
17%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
65%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
28%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bansko (draw refunded)
62%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bansko at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.98 · 131 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bansko attack 1.62 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Bansko defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bansko scores more
45%
level
27%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
28%

Bansko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bansko vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Bansko and Vitosha Bistritsa drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar in Bansko.